Wednesday, December 14, 2011

US Treasury Outlays & Receipts

Is Gridlock bullish or bearish? In the past, it’s probably been bullish more than it has been bearish. After all, our constitutional system was designed by our Founders to disperse power among the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches of our government. Congress was designed so that special interest groups more often than not would be stymied from achieving their legislative agendas by resistance from “factions” with opposing interests. In Civics, Gridlock is called by the less pejorative name of “Checks and Balances.”

So the system seems to have worked exactly as it was designed (i.e., not to work) this year. According to the Congressional Record, this year through November, the House approved 326 bills, the fewest in at least 10 non-election years; the Senate passed 368 measures, the fewest since 1995. Conversely, the House passed 970 measures in 2009 and 1,127 in 2007, and the Senate for those years approved 478 and 621, respectively.

So far, that hasn’t been very bullish for the stock market. That’s because the legacy of all the lawmaking over the past few years has been to saddle the US economy with huge federal deficits and rapidly mounting federal debt. Various attempts to narrow these deficits have failed miserably. From this perspective, Gridlock is bearish. The outlook is for more of the same next year, and beyond depending on the election results on November 6, 2012.

How did we get to this sorry state? The special interest groups learned that they could achieve their goals through cooperation rather than conflict with one another. Most importantly, they figured out that the government’s budget isn’t a zero sum game if the resulting spending binge is deficit financed. The Constitution needs a Balanced Budget Amendment. European governments seem to be moving in exactly that direction as a result of their fiscal crises.

We monitor the latest developments and trends in the US federal government’s budget in our US Government Finance briefing book. Let’s have a look:

(1) A trillion here, a trillion there. Over the past 12 months through November, the federal deficit was $1.01 trillion. On this basis, it has exceeded $1 trillion since June 2009 (Figure 1). Federal government outlays totaled $3.6 over the past 12 months through November. That’s up 50% since March 2005. Over this period, receipts totaled $2.3 trillion, up 14.8% from the most recent cyclical low during January 2010, but still 11.1% below the previous record high during April 2008 (Figure 2).

(2) Lots more IOUs. Total US government debt outstanding rose to a record $15.1 trillion during November. It is up 50% since September 2008 and 100% since December 2004 (Figure 17). The per capita comparisons are shocking. The government’s debt divided by the labor force, which represents actual and potential taxpayers, rose to a record $9,819 in November, a 100% jump since the spring of 2004 (Figure 23). In October, the government’s debt was 1.6 times greater than a year’s worth of disposable income excluding government transfer payments. That’s a record high, and up from 1.0 during May 2008 (Figure 24).

(3) Tax revenues are up and down. Total federal tax receipts tend to be a lagging indicator of the economy (Figure 12). They rose to a cyclical high of $2.3 trillion over the past 12 months through November, led entirely by individual income tax receipts, which rose to $1.1 trillion (Figure 2 and 9). Corporate tax receipts have flattened at around $200 billion. That’s really puzzling given that corporate profits are at a record high; yet these receipts are about 50% below the record high of $382.3 billion during June 2007. It may be that US corporations are earning more of their profits overseas and aren’t repatriating them because of the high corporate tax rate in the US.

In the past, payroll tax receipts (so-called “social insurance and retirement receipts”) rose during economic expansions, and even during recessions. They’ve been falling since November 2008, when they peaked at $905 billion. They were down to $806 billion over the past 12 months through November (Figure 9). That’s because Washington has been cutting payroll tax rates in an effort to stimulate economic growth.

(4) No more PayGo. The problem with cutting payroll tax rates is that the result is a rapidly widening social welfare deficit in America. Our Social Security and Medicare entitlement systems were designed to be fully financed by payroll taxes, which was the case until the middle of the previous decade. But then the social welfare deficit ballooned to a record high of $402.3 billion over the 12 months through November of this year (Figures 13 and 14).

By the way, a “do-nothing” congressional session, which passes relatively few bills, does not necessarily mean that the power and scale of our government in Washington has been diminished. When Congress cannot approve multiple separate pieces of legislation in a timely fashion, it will often bundle the bills together into the scheme known as an “omnibus” spending bill--which often leads to billions of dollars in pork being wasted on congressional cronyism in one piece of legislation. 

49 comments:

  1. I like reading since I can picture the character the why I envision then excessively be. Efficiently written data, it will be significant to everybody who utilizes it, including myself. This blog is exceptionally valuable for us Thank you in order for sharing this astounding data. Check out my dissertation writing service website.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You have shared a very informative article here about the Insurance Premium. Your article is very useful for me because I was little confused about this. Thanks for sharing this article here. best car insurance - travel insurance quote

    ReplyDelete
  3. I enjoyed over read your blog post. Your blog have nice information I got good ideas from this amazing blog. I am always searching like this type blog post. I hope I will see again..
    Check out this website Install Safari browser on PC for more updates...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Wow!! This truly is a nice and awesome post and also having a lot of information in it!!
    Thanks for sharing a nice piece of information!
    official website

    ReplyDelete
  5. Nice post. Your wording really good. We are custom boxes provider at wholesale rate. If any one need it they can visit our site.
    Tincture Boxes UK

    ReplyDelete
  6. instyle is one of the oldest leather jacket website where you can get the best leather jacket designs and winters sale . visit to our website to get the best leather quality.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thanks for sharing this article...
    You should also read SPRING CLEANING FOR THE SOUL

    ReplyDelete
  8. It's good to see you! Professional essay writing services https://essaysrescue.com/samedayessay-review/ are 100% legit if you choose the right site. For example, take us It’s an experienced, time-tested, and high-quality essay service that helps dozens of students every day to have better grades in college.

    ReplyDelete
  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Thanks.. You should also visit Hiker Support to learn about best cooler backpacks.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I really impressed by your article
    You should also know about Freelanceinfos

    ReplyDelete


  12. To enhance my education, I should complete my operations management homework. I really need your assistance with management-related responsibilities. I want to get the best consumer behavior assignment writiing help I can this year, therefore I'll work hard and succeed. A big thank you as well for this blog. We all know that in order to further our education, management activities must be completed, so we are aware of how they connect to my educational goals.

    ReplyDelete
  13. As virtually all metals can be melted, pressed, and drawn, they can also be|may also be|can be} was thin sheets for additional manufacturing processes. However, OXO Can Openers there are some unusual exceptions that stop some metals from being handled in specific methods with one widespread instance being delicate metals and shearing. Shearing is the method of slicing a sheet of steel using a shearing drive , and this works nicely for onerous metals.

    ReplyDelete
  14. This article is really informatiove and alos if you want more information on
    SOC Maturity Assessment threm this dource is really helpfull

    ReplyDelete
  15. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thanks for giving us permission to share relevant information about the writing services. Nowadays, for every academic student, the important aspect is doing homework at time. It makes up a respectable percentage of the final grades.
    Global Assignment Help is an eminent name among the homework writing services.

    Seeking homework help in writing is beneficial for students. It provides timely support, enhances understanding of complex topics, and improves academic performance. So if you're having difficulty managing your homework and exams, reach our homework writing services today!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Global Assignment Help is one of the leading platforms that offer do my math homework services in the USA. Our other services include essay help, dissertation help, case study help, and other academic tasks.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Our HP HPE0-V25 practice test is the most reliable solution to quickly prepare for your HP HPE Hybrid Cloud Solutions. We are certain that our HP HPE0-V25 practice exam will guide you to get certified on the first try. Here is how we serve you to prepare successfully.
    HPE0-V25 Dumps

    ReplyDelete
  19. Expenditures: These are what the federal government of the United States spends. They cover all expense related to maintaining the government, such as paying for numerous programmes, paying staff, and repaying the national debt. Expenditures can be categorised into a number of distinct groups, including required spending.... domestic violence protective orders in virginia
    domestic violence protective order virginia

    ReplyDelete
  20. Mastering Salesforce Data Cloud is not just about understanding its functionalities but also about leveraging its vast capabilities to drive business outcomes. These practice questions, while comprehensive, only scratch the surface. The true essence lies in hands-on experience and continuous learning.

    https://inkbunny.net/s/974369
    https://inkbunny.net/s/728562
    https://www.youth4work.com/y/raynickson
    https://www.youth4work.com/y/raynikson
    http://publius.yardeni.com/2011/10/china.html
    http://publius.yardeni.com/2011/10/home-alone-update-on-homestead-act.html#comment-form
    https://www.thesims3.com/myBlog.html?persona=h3swy37v1egh

    ReplyDelete
  21. Assignment help services provide students with assistance in completing academic tasks. These services offer guidance and support for various subjects and levels of education. Expert tutors and writers can help with research, writing, editing, and proofreading assignments, ensuring quality and adherence to academic standards. Assignment help can improve students' understanding of topics, boost their grades, and reduce stress. It promotes time management and helps students meet deadlines. However, it's essential to choose reputable services to ensure the authenticity and originality of the work. Online reviews and recommendations can aid in selecting the right assignment help provider.




    ReplyDelete

  22. The treasury refers to the financial department of a government, corporation, or institution responsible for managing funds, budgets, and financial assets. It involves overseeing revenue collection, budget allocation, and fiscal policies. The treasury plays a vital role in economic management and financial stability, ensuring prudent financial decisions and resource allocation.
    motorcycle accidents yesterday
    Estate Lawyer Near Me






    ReplyDelete
  23. Thanks for sharing the informative information
    if you want to learn more information then:
    coffee face pack for pigmentation

    ReplyDelete
  24. Diving into the intricacies of US Treasury Outlays & Receipts is as crucial as ensuring the stability of a power supply in a complex system. In financial landscapes, much like the reliability of the FSP150-50CI Sparkle Power 150-Watts Power Supply, understanding the ins and outs of fiscal policies and economic transactions is paramount. Exploring the nuances of Treasury Outlays & Receipts unveils the financial pulse of the nation, akin to the vital role a robust power supply plays in maintaining seamless operations.

    ReplyDelete
  25. This content is very informative.....
    You can also read about meRyze Coffee Review

    ReplyDelete

  26. Treasury refers to the department or function within a government responsible for managing finances, including budgeting, taxation, and monetary policy. In a corporate context, the treasury department oversees financial aspects like cash management, investments, and risk management. The term may also refer to the financial resources or assets of a government, organization, or individual. Thanks for sharing the informative information.
    tax and estate lawyer
    henrico traffic lawyer





    ReplyDelete
  27. Online Paper Help USA is a vital academic support service offering expert assistance in crafting essays and assignments. With a focus on quality and timely delivery, this service ensures students receive personalized guidance for their writing tasks. Seamlessly integrated with assignment help, it forms a comprehensive solution for students seeking academic excellence in the United States, combining expertise in paper crafting and broader assignment needs.

    ReplyDelete
  28. A plagiarism checker is an essential tool for students seeking cheap assignment help to ensure academic integrity. This tool scans written content, highlighting potential instances of plagiarism by comparing it against a vast database of existing materials. Cheap assignment help services often incorporate plagiarism checkers to guarantee the originality of work, fostering a culture of academic honesty and preventing unintentional plagiarism, ultimately enhancing the quality and authenticity of students' submissions.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Your succinct explanation of New York State's divorce grounds is really beneficial! It's excellent that you make legal issues so clear. In addition to providing solutions, this post gives readers confidence. Bravo for facilitating access to complicated knowledge! What are Grounds for Divorce in New York State

    ReplyDelete
  30. This content is very informative...
    You can also about meLuxury Penthouses in Dubai<\a>

    ReplyDelete
  31. Delve into the latest US Treasury Outlays & Receipts data to gain insights into the nation's fiscal landscape. Discover how government expenditures and revenue collections are shaping the economic landscape. Stay informed on the financial health of the nation with real-time updates on Treasury outlays and receipts real estate contract disputes

    ReplyDelete
  32. Interesting post. Keep posting more of this kind. I love them Are you also searching for Houston to we are the best solution for you.Houston to Galveston Shuttle

    ReplyDelete
  33. Truck accidents often result in severe injuries and substantial damages, making the expertise of a specialized attorney crucial. Truck accidents attorneys

    ReplyDelete
  34. A Judgment of Divorce is a court order in New York officially terminating a marriage, Judgment of Divorce New York outlining the terms of the divorce settlement and the parties' rights and obligations.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Cakesncakesshop is the best cake shop in Mohali. We have a variety of cakes. Order Cakes Online

    ReplyDelete
  36. Thanks for share content. you can also read Eye Serum

    ReplyDelete

  37. US Treasury Outlays & Receipts provide crucial insights into the country's financial health and government spending. Understanding these figures is key to making informed decisions about economic policies and budgeting. I'm sure many people rely on these reports to stay informed about the nation's fiscal matters. tax and estate lawyer





    ReplyDelete
  38. This content is very informative...
    You can also about meBest Painting Company in Dubai

    ReplyDelete
  39. Dummy schools in Jaipur are unaccredited educational establishments operating without adhering to standard regulations. They often mislead students and parents with false promises of quality education. These institutions jeopardize the educational integrity of Jaipur and can harm students' futures. Authorities are vigilant in identifying and shutting down such fraudulent operations to protect the community from exploitation.

    ReplyDelete